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Holiday shopping remains one of the most important seasonal events in retail. It drives spending across gifts, food, travel, decorations, and ecommerce, while also setting the tone for year-end consumer confidence.
Quick Answer (2026): NRF forecast U.S. holiday sales of $1.01 trillion to $1.02 trillion in 2025, which would mark the first holiday season to surpass the $1 trillion threshold. NRF also said 2025 holiday sales grew 4.1% based on Retail Monitor data.
| Metric | Figure | Year |
|---|---|---|
| Holiday sales forecast | $1.01T to $1.02T | 2025 |
| Holiday sales growth | 4.1% | 2025 |
| Prior-year holiday sales | $976.1 billion | 2024 |
NRF forecast U.S. holiday sales between $1.01 trillion and $1.02 trillion in 2025. That would make 2025 the first holiday season to pass the trillion-dollar mark in NRF’s forecast framework.
NRF later said 2025 holiday sales grew 4.1% based on its Retail Monitor data. That kept the holiday period one of the strongest retail moments of the year even in a more cautious consumer environment.
Holiday spending is a major indicator for consumer demand, ecommerce momentum, and year-end retail performance. That makes current NRF holiday data a much stronger category anchor than generic holiday trivia.
NRF forecast $1.01 trillion to $1.02 trillion in holiday sales.
That was the key NRF forecast milestone for the season.
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