Photo by Aaron Burden on Unsplash
Groundhog Day is observed every year on February 2. Tradition says that if a groundhog sees its shadow, winter will last another six weeks; if not, spring arrives early. The most famous forecast comes from Punxsutawney Phil at Gobbler’s Knob in Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania.
This post updates the most reliable Groundhog Day statistics for 2026—Phil’s latest prediction, history milestones, accuracy benchmarks, and why Feb. 2 became the date.
Groundhog Day by the Numbers (2026)
- Date: February 2 (annual)
- Most famous groundhog: Punxsutawney Phil (Punxsutawney, PA)
- 2026 prediction: Phil saw his shadow → 6 more weeks of winter
- First official Punxsutawney celebration: 1887
- Accuracy benchmarks: ~35% (NOAA grading) and ~39% (Stormfax, widely cited)
- Why Feb. 2: ties to Candlemas + cross-quarter seasonal timing
Sources:
Groundhog.org (history & past predictions) |
AP (2026 result) |
NOAA (grading groundhogs) |
CBS (Stormfax accuracy summary) |
Library of Congress (origins)
Key Metrics Table
| Metric | Figure | Year / As-of | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Groundhog Day date | February 2 | Annual | Groundhog.org |
| 2026 Punxsutawney Phil prediction | Saw shadow → 6 more weeks of winter | Feb 2, 2026 | Groundhog.org |
| First official Punxsutawney celebration | 1887 | Historical | Groundhog.org |
| Accuracy benchmark (Punxsutawney Phil) | ~35% accuracy (NOAA grading) | Updated through 2026 list | NOAA |
| Accuracy benchmark (Stormfax, widely cited) | ~39% overall (since 1887, per Stormfax) | Reported Feb 2026 | CBS / Stormfax reference |
| Why February 2? | Candlemas + cross-quarter day timing | Tradition | Library of Congress |
What Happened on Groundhog Day 2026?
According to Punxsutawney’s official Groundhog Day record, Punxsutawney Phil saw his shadow in 2026, which means he predicted six more weeks of winter. Major news outlets reported the same result from the annual event at Gobbler’s Knob.
Sources:
Groundhog.org |
AP
Why February 2? Candlemas + “Cross-Quarter Day”
Why February 2? Candlemas + “Cross-Quarter Day”Groundhog Day’s timing overlaps with Candlemas, a Christian tradition observed on February 2 that historically involved blessing candles. Folklore connected Candlemas weather to how quickly spring would arrive.
February 2 is also commonly described as a cross-quarter day—roughly halfway between the winter solstice and spring equinox—making it a natural cultural checkpoint for “how winter is going.”
Sources:
Library of Congress |
Old Farmer’s Almanac (cross-quarter days)
How Accurate Is Punxsutawney Phil?
Accuracy depends on how you define “early spring” and which weather station/temperature benchmarks you use. Two commonly cited approaches are:
- NOAA “grading groundhogs”: places Phil around 35% accuracy on its ranking list (updated to include 2026).
- Stormfax (often quoted by media): Phil is about 39% accurate overall since records began in 1887.
Sources:
NOAA |
CBS (Stormfax reference)
Groundhog Day Timeline (Year-Labeled)
- 1887: First official Groundhog Day celebration in Punxsutawney, PA.
- 1993: Groundhog Day film boosts pop-culture awareness of the tradition.
- 2026: Phil saw his shadow → predicted 6 more weeks of winter.
Sources:
Groundhog.org |
AP
FAQ
What day is Groundhog Day?
Groundhog Day is observed every year on February 2. Source
Did Punxsutawney Phil see his shadow in 2026?
Yes. Punxsutawney’s official record says Phil saw his shadow on Feb. 2, 2026, predicting six more weeks of winter. Source
Where does Punxsutawney Phil make his prediction?
Phil’s prediction is announced at Gobbler’s Knob near Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania. Source
How accurate is Punxsutawney Phil?
Depending on the method, estimates place Phil around 35% (NOAA) to about 39% (Stormfax, widely cited). Source
Why is Groundhog Day connected to Candlemas?
Groundhog Day folklore overlaps with older Candlemas traditions that used early-February weather as a clue for how long winter would last. Source